Topic: Interesting stuff about SpaceX Starship (hate the name)

[Nemesis]

Back to Monday again. 

[d4v1ks]

Back to Monday again.

I imagine if they cancelled it because of the weather alone.
It was a very foggy day.
But the static fire, despite brief, looked fine.
Probably they are just being cautious, as they already had 2 failures in a row.

[Nemesis]

I haven't seen the static fire but the last video I saw was very foggy so I thought that was the reason for the cancellation too.  I'm sure they want all around clear video of the landing. 

I'm hoping for a perfect landing (or at least close). If the landing gear bend a little leaving the ship tilted but upright and no explosion I'll be very pleased and I suspect Musk will too. 

What comes next will be interesting whether it is SN15 or BN1. 

I doubt that they will make the July orbital mission unless it is just a booster that isn't expected to land.  Alternately barely orbital with a Starship unable to land.  But I would love to be wrong and have a full orbital mission of Starship deploying Starlink satellites en masse at any time in July.  It would be a real wake up call to the "competition".

 

[Nemesis]

It looks like they are building fuel storage tanks using the same components as for the Starship/SH. I wonder if the results of the SN7.2 fuel tank with the 3mm material was good enough that they are going ahead with it for future Starship/SH construction and someone said "What are we going to do with all this 4mm material we have on hand"? and have Musk (or someone) say "Build our tank farm out of it damn it!"

They also finally installed the crane in the High Bay.  No more taking the roof off and using extensions on their movable crane to stack SH. 

[Nemesis]

SN11 blew up just after the beginning of the landing burn.  R.I.P.  Cause unknown.  Two possibilities are 1/ a breach in the tanks allowed mixing of methane and LOX leading to the explosion 2/ The auto destruct activated when telemetry failed.  My option would be 3/ the header tank at midships using heated propellant to maintain pressure had an "over pressure event" and blew leading to the whole tank-age going too. 

BN1 is already considered obsolete and is scheduled for scrapping.  BN2?  If it survives early testing might reach orbit.

SN15 is nearly ready to be sent to the launch pad.   Could be soon. 

[Nemesis]

My option would be 3/ the header tank at midships using heated propellant to maintain pressure had an "over pressure event" and blew leading to the whole tank-age going too. 

I'm starting to see discussion now of the possibility that this is the actual cause.  No confirmation but discussion when I hadn't seen any such idea before posting it here. 

[Nemesis]

From Elon Musk:

"A (relatively) small CH4 leak led to fire on engine 2 & fried part of avionics, causing hard start attempting landing burn in CH4 turbopump."

Now what exactly constitutes a hard start and why that caused the explosion still needs explanation.  I don't think this rules out my idea.  But we'll have to wait for more info.

[Nemesis]

Looks likely that SN15 will move to the launch pad Friday and maybe pressure testing and static fire for Monday and Tuesday.  Not that long before some form of launch. 

[Nemesis]

I was pessimistic it was done on Thursday.  (SN15 moved to the launch pad)

Interesting, a thrust puck for super heavy has been seen at Boca Chica with holes for the full load of Raptors.  Maybe for BN2 or BN3 I don't know.  Something like 34 Raptors are being shipped to Boca Chica as well, enought for a fully stacked orbital Starship/Super heavy combo.  Wonder if Musk really does expect an orbital launch by July even if he can't land either part. 

Interesting times. 

Also saw that there are 2 serious contenders to starting building a commercial space station within 2 years and a wannabe that may be a bit of a long shot but possible.  One of those plans to NOT use SpaceX for anything. 

I'd like to see SpaceX buy Bigelow and use Starship to send up modules bigger than anything anyone else can send.  Even if they have to use Dragons to deliver the personnel. 

There was a April Fools video with Bezos claiming to have bought NASA to destroy SpaceX and Tesla.   

[Nemesis]

I just recalled that the "wannabe" for a space station plans to "harvest" 2nd stages abandoned in orbit to make into station modules.  Now if this would work what company is better positioned to do so than SpaceX?  Even prototype starships that they know they can't land from orbital speed would make HUGE modules for a station once you empty the fuel tanks and remodel them for habitation and equipment. 

[Nemesis]

From Elon Musk:

"A (relatively) small CH4 leak led to fire on engine 2 & fried part of avionics, causing hard start attempting landing burn in CH4 turbopump."

Now what exactly constitutes a hard start and why that caused the explosion still needs explanation.  I don't think this rules out my idea.  But we'll have to wait for more info.

I have seen statements that a hard start causes a pressure surge which would be compatible with the idea of the re-pressurization system blowing one or both of the header tanks.

[Nemesis]

Interesting, a thrust puck for super heavy has been seen at Boca Chica with holes for the full load of Raptors.  Maybe for BN2 or BN3 I don't know. 

Also a thrust puck with placements for 3 vacuum raptors in addition to the gimballed 3 standard raptors.   Made I presume for an orbital Starship. 

[Nemesis]

BN1 is already considered obsolete and is scheduled for scrapping. 

Scrapping has begun.

SN15 currently scheduled to fly Monday at 8PM their time.

[Nemesis]

Looks like a Starlink system is installed on SN15.  They may not have FCC approval for it yet but they do have an application so even if SN15 doesn't use it future SNs may.

[Nemesis]

3 companies were up for consideration on providing the Lunar Landers for the Artemis program.  It was expected that 2 would be chosen to continue

1/ The national team (lousy design) that Blue Origin is part of and the owner Bezos has been boasting they are delivering the first woman to the Moon.  Their lander is a 3 part lander and has a long ladder that the astronauts have to climb in and out - dangerous in a space suit.  It is also only 1/3 reusable.  NOT CHOSEN.  This was being considered by many as a slam dunk even though a bad choice

2/ Dynetics has a nice design that other than a couple of drop tanks is fully reusable.  A nice part of the design is that the engines are at the sides and habitat (cylindrical) section is between them, it can be driven out.  NOT CHOSEN.  This would be an excellent design for scouting out landing sites for larger craft and once fuel is being made locally as a hopper going surface to surface much faster than using a crawler type craft.  Disappointed that it wasn't chosen for those aspects

3/ The SpaceX Lunar Starship.  Wasn't expected to be chosen but it was.  Big advantage is MUCH larger cargo.  Disadvantage is it needs vastly more fuel to get it to the moon, land and return.  Also though I believe that they can make the fuel on the moon it will be much more difficult.

What *I* think they should have done. 

Choose 2 and 3.  Use Dynetics for scouting a good location for the base.  Use starship to deliver 100+ tons of cargo to start building the base and fuel extraction - cargo only at this stage probably not the fuel to return until it could be made locally, optionally lie it down on its side, bury it and convert it to part of the base.  Once the fuel is generated locally use Starship, cargo, fuel and personel versions but continue with the Dynetics as an explorer craft. 

Get SpaceX to design a cut down version that is shorter (but the same diameter) for passenger carrying.  I think they should anyway.

Fuel delivered from the moon to lunar orbit would reduce the total fuel requirements compared to the fuel costs to deliver fuel needed not only for landings on the moon but for returns from the Moon to Earth. 

Lunar fuel delivered to a high lunar orbit could potentially top up Mars bound craft and craft for missions further out.   

If I was running SpaceX I'd want the Dynetics lander developed and in production to use as a Mars explorer too.  Of course by the time it was on Mars I'd want to have it using methane rather than hydrogen. 

[Nemesis]

BN1 is already considered obsolete and is scheduled for scrapping. 

Scrapping has begun.

SN15 currently scheduled to fly Monday at 8PM their time.

Changed to Tuesday 4 PM.

[Nemesis]

On Artemis:

There were 3 bids for the lander each had some interesting things.  It does seem that payments are to be on completion of various landmarks. 

SpaceX was the low bid but even so the payment for this year was more than NASA had in the discretionary budget.  So as they were the best bid NASA renegotiated.  The total bid by SpaceX was NOT decreased but the amount due this year was pushed down.  The bid covers 2 landings, one unmanned, one with 2 astronauts.  This does NOT cover the whole Artemis program.  SpaceX is the only one with the system already in development as the Lunar Starship is a variant of the standard Starship.

Blue Origins bid was 2nd best on price but it was worse by a "substantial" margin.  How substantial?  Good question but I haven't seen the answer.  This bid would also have been renegotiated as it was invalid in that it required up front payment not payment on reaching goals as required by the bidding process.  Renegotiating was not done as the bid was too high altogether and not within the budget Congress approved for Artemis even if it was the only lander.

Dynetics while they had an excellent design conceptually (IMO) was the worst price.  The bid also had problems in that the mass of the lander was too much for the propulsion system to handle.  A severe discrepancy and the bidding process did not allow for changes to the design proposal. 

Sustainable bids:  This came as a surprise in that the currently awarded contract only covers those first 2 landings which is far less than required for the full Artemis program.  There is to be a 2nd bidding process for a Sustainable Lander for the rest of the program.  Assuming that Starship is successful with the landing and the bid is good they should win at least part of the contract.  The others would *I think* have to have an operable lander self developed to have a shot at this.  I haven't seen details on the required design functions.  Some suspect that this is a backdoor way to get a 2nd lander design.  The goal from the beginning was to have 2 lander types. 

Congressional Complaints: Some in government have objected already to the award.  Info is sparse but it does seem to come from both parties.  What will happen?  Only time will tell.

Speculation.  Some think that the objections are because the out going administration has made the agreement and it should have waited for the new one to be seated.  Others think that the competitors as political donors are pulling strings to get the deal changed. 

Time will tell. 

[Nemesis]

BN1 is already considered obsolete and is scheduled for scrapping. 

Scrapping has begun.

SN15 currently scheduled to fly Monday at 8PM their time.

Changed to Tuesday 4 PM.

Now Wednesday at 4 PM

[Nemesis]

BN1 is already considered obsolete and is scheduled for scrapping. 

Scrapping has begun.

SN15 currently scheduled to fly Monday at 8PM their time.

Changed to Tuesday 4 PM.

Now Wednesday at 4 PM

Now Thursday at 4PM.  Make that Friday at 4 PM.  Whoops Monday at 4 PM.

[d4v1ks]

Now Thursday at 4PM.  Make that Friday at 4 PM.  Whoops Monday at 4 PM.

Yeah, it has been crazy for them.
They won the NASA budget, found some issues in an engine in the middle of the week.
They want to be sure they won't mess next launch.

Thnx for the all the updates Nemesis