Topic: Interesting stuff about SpaceX Starship (hate the name)

[Nemesis]

The Starliner computer issue was a power supply fault and they swapped in a spare computer.  The next delay was a helium leak and they not only didn't solve it but the capsule has not made it to the station yet and TWO MORE helium leaks have developed.  They have been stopped apparently by disabling the leaking valves. 

Not inspiring confidence in me.  They couldn't pay be enough to ride on it.

Another delay in return. 

They have  been doing more tests and plan to ignite (TWICE) 7 of the 8 aft thrusters.  The helium leaks are up to FIVE now. 

Not inspiring confidence.  Best of luck to the astronauts if they fly back in this capsule rather than have a Dragon rescue sent up. 

The thrusters being tested failed during docking maneuvers.  All but one of them now seem to be functional.  The last uncrewed flight had failures in the thrusters as well (on the 3rd and last backup by the end of the mission as I recall) so it looks like their fix didn't work very well. 

The return has now been pushed out to the 26th to continue with more testing.   Best wishes for the crew and hopefully NASA won't allow them to return without a high degree of confidence in their survival. 

I just noticed that IFT5 is now being listed for July (so likely August?).   Should be Booster 12 and Starship 30.

Still listing July.  The Starship unit is having the entire heat shield stripped down and replaced. They are adding a ablative layer (under the tiles) and "stronger" (in what way is unclear) tiles.  Some reports can be interpretted that the tiles will be more variable with thinner tiles in low risk areas and thicker ones in high risk.

They also have indicated that the other flaps had issues as well but mostly the forward flaps. 

Still no clear statement as to if they will attempt a catch of the booster.  It occurs to me that part of the reason for removing the old tank farm is that it gives them a clear area to drop the booster on site if the catch fails by hovering just above ground till the fuel runs out minimizing explosion issues.   There is a berm around the tower side at least so there would be some limitation on where the debris could go if it breaks up. Here is hoping that the flight (and catch if attempted) will be flawless. 

Permits for construction related to Starship in Florida indicate TWO towers one of which is labelled as "Catch Tower".  With needing to catch both stages two towers need to be available only one of which needs to be a full launch tower.  So it looks like my repeated statements that they should have a catch only tower are coming true.

UPDATE:

The Block 2 Superheavy booster will not have 33 Raptor engines but 35 as well as being taller to contain more fuel.

NEW GLENN:  Still scheduled for the end of September.  The most interesting thing I've come across recently is that Bezos has made a reference to trying to make a much cheaper expendable 2nd stage (previously indicated that their current design CANNOT be profitable without a reusable 2nd stage). 

I wonder if they have found out what I have long suspected SpaceX of discovering when they worked on making the Falcon 9 2nd stage reusable (and gave up) namely that the minimum practical size is much larger, perhaps even Starship sized.  If so then New Glenn is too small by far to make a practical reusable 2nd stage. 

I wonder if they will ever announce anything more about New Armstrong?  Will it be a Starship clone?  The BE-4 engines MIGHT be suitable especially if they were given more refinement to decrease the mass.  They still need their engine factory and to use the same engine for both stages.

Blue Origin has for unclear reasons been allowed to bid on the next round of military launches (covering till 2029) even though they still haven't made even one orbital launch attempt and I am not confident that they will do so this year.  The other two are naturally SpaceX and ULA.

Waiting for the next big event.

[Nemesis]

The Starliner computer issue was a power supply fault and they swapped in a spare computer.  The next delay was a helium leak and they not only didn't solve it but the capsule has not made it to the station yet and TWO MORE helium leaks have developed.  They have been stopped apparently by disabling the leaking valves. 

Not inspiring confidence in me.  They couldn't pay be enough to ride on it.

Another delay in return. 

They have  been doing more tests and plan to ignite (TWICE) 7 of the 8 aft thrusters.  The helium leaks are up to FIVE now. 

Not inspiring confidence.  Best of luck to the astronauts if they fly back in this capsule rather than have a Dragon rescue sent up.

Now June 26th in the early morning.  Now July 2nd.

NASA and Boeing believe the thrusters went offline due to the high heat generated while the system was firing "in rapid succession" to keep the spacecraft on course with the space station, Stich said.

So normal use over heats them?  Not good.  They also still don't seem to have a clue about the failed valve or why they have so many helium leaks (still 5).

They seem to still be planning to fly it next with a full crew. 

Hear is hoping that we don't end up saying R.I.P. for Starliner crews now and in the future.

Updated:  Just the return date to July 2nd.

Boeing is trying to compare this to the PLANNED longer stay of Crew Demo Dragon flight.  Not nearly the same as A/ it was PLANNED in advance and B/ They didn't have a major issue. 

[Nemesis]

It appears a test tank (14.1) that was made for testing the strength of the "pins" the booster lands on may actually be dropped onto the mechazilla arms by a crane.  This would also test the catching arms themselves and perhaps its ability to reposition a booster along the length of the arms and to rotate it for correct orientation (though this may already have been tested with a full booster, I don't recall it being done but might have missed it).

SpaceX has applied to the FCC to use certain frequencies for catch attempts on IFT5 and IFT6 with IFT7 later using revised frequencies.  Start date for use of the frequencies (presumably for testing not a flight/landing) is July 17th.  Nothing to indicate whether this would include the test tank drop mentioned above.

Ariane 6 over due by 4 years has had a successful wet dress rehearsal so a flight may be relatively soon (within 6? months perhaps).  So the EU may soon be back to launching their own rockets. 

[Nemesis]

Just like a lot of things with Super Heavy this can be tried first on Starship and is much easier with the reduced mass.  Almost all components for SH are common with Starship, now the Earth landing is shared too.  This allows Starship to do almost all the prototype level work for SH.

I've been reviewing some old posts.  I got this one wrong.  I didn't consider the added difficulty of returning from orbit for the catch.  So Super Heavy gets caught first. 

Ooops. 

[Nemesis]

The filter clogging on the booster is now explained.  How they plan to stop it recurring is not explained.

They maintain tank pressurization with partially burned propellant from the propellant pumping system (burning the propellant powers the pumps).  The combustion results in CO2 and water.  It is water ice that is causing the filter clogging.  Water obviously freezes at the temperatures of LOX and liquid methane.  Maybe they will have to change things so the combustion products don't do the pressurization but the actual material being pumped does?  Or some other way to keep ice from the filters.

[Nemesis]

Dream Chaser (space cargo plane) to be launched on Vulcan in September now delayed to December.

Based on prior delays to December of different missions I consider the December launch unlikely.  They seem to place them at year end till they find out what is likely to happen.  ULA currently has a July launch, a September launch and FIVE December launches with 3 of those being Vulcan.  Seems highly unlikely to me. 

[Nemesis]

Starliner now has no firm return date.  They are extending the mission to AT LEAST 45 days and may well go beyond that.  I've seen reports that the next Crew Dragon in August can't dock with the ISS unless one of the craft already there departs. 

NASA and Boeing are trying to act like this is not serious but extending a 10 day (MAX) mission long enough to interfere with the normal crew rotation seems pretty serious to me. 

Could it be that they want the next Crew Dragon to take equipment to allow carrying the Starliner crew down in the Dragon already there (making it carry 6 not 4)?  In which case presumably Starliner would return uncrewed (if it makes it).  If this happens it may be the end of Starliner.

Really not looking good.

[Nemesis]

Ariane 6 has had a partially successful first launch. The issues were with the 2nd stage and its failed reignition resulting in not all the payloads being put in orbit or on their return to Earth trajectory in a couple of cases.

Not great but for a first flight not a total failure. 

Update: 

The 2nd stage was to ignite three times the first two were successful and all the satellites were put in their correct orbits.  The 3rd ignition was to deorbit the craft and place 2 more "probes" on paths which would result in them landing by parachute.  The 2nd stage will now have to wait till the orbit naturally ends could be years or even decades so the "probes" are effectively lost as their electronics won't last that long. 

So more successful than my initial thinking.  If they were only placing satellites in one orbit plus the "probes" this would likely have been a total success.

A good but not great first flight.

[Nemesis]

Starliner now has no firm return date.  They are extending the mission to AT LEAST 45 days and may well go beyond that.  I've seen reports that the next Crew Dragon in August can't dock with the ISS unless one of the craft already there departs. 

NASA and Boeing are trying to act like this is not serious but extending a 10 day (MAX) mission long enough to interfere with the normal crew rotation seems pretty serious to me. 

Could it be that they want the next Crew Dragon to take equipment to allow carrying the Starliner crew down in the Dragon already there (making it carry 6 not 4)?  In which case presumably Starliner would return uncrewed (if it makes it).  If this happens it may be the end of Starliner.

Really not looking good.

Finally some more info:  Link to article

And the testing may have helped give engineers a better understanding of the issue’s “root cause”: Heat building up inside the thrusters may be causing Teflon seals to bulge, restricting the flow of propellant.

The findings also prompted Boeing and NASA to abandon plans to allow the astronauts to manually fly the Starliner spacecraft on the way home, as they did briefly during the trip to the ISS. “Some of the manual maneuvering put some extra stress on the thrusters,” said Steve Stich, NASA’s Commercial crew program manager.

Still, officials did not definitively say Thursday that the Starliner spacecraft that carried veteran NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to the space station would be the same vehicle that brought the astronauts back home.

“There is a lot of good reasons to complete this mission and bring Butch and Suni home on Starliner,” Stich said after noting that NASA does have contingency options if Starliner is not approved to bring the astronauts home.

The Helium leak source:

Analysis of components on the ground — specifically, a version of the Starliner’s service module that’s been sitting in White Sands, New Mexico for three years — showed that the helium leaks may be a result of seals that have become degraded because of exposure to propellant vapor, according to Nappi.

No commitment as to how they will bring them home.

[Nemesis]

Another Starliner Update:

They've done an in orbit hot fire of the thrusters.

Figuring out what happened is key to the readiness of the next mission, Starliner-1, which is supposed to spend six months on the ISS in 2025. On Friday (July 28), NASA announced a delay of that mission to August 2025, past an initial expectation of early winter.

The long delay of the next Starliner flight shows that NASA at least IS taking this seriously.

NASA and Boeing have not yet identified how they will fix Starliner's issues, whether by design or by changing the way astronauts in the future fire thrusters, officials told reporters on Thursday (July 27).

The claim is that the overheating that shut down  the thrusters was due to the way they were manually fired.  How this inter relates with the other claims of it being Teflon seals swelling is unclear.

Ground testing on a thruster this month uncovered why CFT's RCS had issues: If fired repeatedly, especially in conjunction with the orbital maneuvering and control system (OMAC) thrusters, the "doghouses" or insulated bays sheltering groups of RCS thrusters tend to heat up, leading to thrusters shedding Teflon insulation from their seals. NASA and Boeing also said this issue could not have been uncovered on the ground, ahead of flying CFT.

Seems like it can't handle sustained firing of any group of thrusters.

No telling yet if they will return on Starliner or on a Dragon (hypothetically it could be on a Soyuz).

[Nemesis]

SpaceX has applied to increase the number of launches AND landings at Boca Chica.  They want to launch and land 25 Starships and land 25 1st stages and 25 2nd stages per year.

[Nemesis]

Raptor Version  3 Unit 1 has now been delivered. Visibly simpler cleaner design.  Less weight, higher thrust and ISP.

I wonder if they will keep using the Version 2 until they can reliably do catches?  They made a lot of them, can't have used more than about 1/3.  It would be interesting if they could be upgraded even partially towards the V3 model. 

The length of Starship is to be increased from 50 meters to 70 meters.  Super Heavy increases from 71 meters to 80 meters.  So total length of 121 meters (397 ft) becomes 150 meters (492 ft).

Thrust - Starship goes from 12 MN to 28.7 MN (reflects 6 vacuum Raptors and upgrade to V3).  Super Heavy  goes from 74 MN to 103 MN.  Raptor 3 + the extra 2 engines gives a major increase (MN = mega newtons in case anyone forgot).

They are allowing for jettisoning the hot staging ring for the next 20 flights.

For ULA there are apparently 23 Vulcan rockets in production.  How long production takes??

Blue Origin has been practicing deploying the New Glenn landing legs and a barge has been seen that is believed to be the landing location for the New Glenn
booster (if it even flies this year - officially Sept 29th).

[Nemesis]

Starliner causing delay of next Crew Dragon until September. 

It seems that since the Starliner last went to the ISS (crewless) a software update removed the ability of the Starliner to undock from the station without a crew aboard.  So they need an update to the software (projected to take 4 weeks) just to allow Starliner to do what it has previously done.  WELL DONE BOEING!  Dragon cannot dock until one of the craft there undocks and they can't undock Starliner and send it back empty while the crew returns on a Dragon at least one would have to ride Starliner home if the software update isn't successful.

There are apparently contingency plans to send up the next Crew Dragon with only 2 crew to return the Starliner Astronauts.  I haven't seen anything that says whether they would stay up for the entire planned mission of the crew men they are to replace on the return or if the ISS will be understaffed (or if some of the current crew would stay longer).  Details of this "plan" (if real) are lacking.

Best of luck to the astronauts.

[Nemesis]

(Bloomberg) -- Blue Origin LLC sustained failures in recent weeks of testing including a factory mishap that damaged a portion of a future New Glenn rocket, the long-awaited centerpiece of the Jeff Bezos-backed startup’s push to take on SpaceX.

The upper portion of one rocket crumpled into itself, in part due to worker error, while it was being moved to a storage hangar, according to people familiar with the situation. In a separate incident, another upper rocket portion failed during stress testing and exploded, the people said. Repairs are underway, another person said, noting there were no injuries during either episode.

The previously unreported incidents illustrate the hurdles Blue Origin is grappling with while ramping up production of New Glenn, which is four years overdue. At the same time, new Chief Executive Officer Dave Limp has hired a slate of executives to shake the company out of a years-long R&D slump.

That  last sentence shows what is wrong at BO.  Hiring EXECUTIVES to get more/better R&D? 

The window for their first flight ends in October when Mars will no longer be in position for the mission.  I have severe doubts of a successful launch in that time frame.  And these accidents just make those doubts bigger.

[Nemesis]

There are apparently contingency plans to send up the next Crew Dragon with only 2 crew to return the Starliner Astronauts.  I haven't seen anything that says whether they would stay up for the entire planned mission of the crew men they are to replace on the return or if the ISS will be understaffed (or if some of the current crew would stay longer).  Details of this "plan" (if real) are lacking.

Best of luck to the astronauts.

This is now the plan.   The astronauts are going to replace the 2 who stay behind and perform their mission.  So they should be back in February.

[Nemesis]

ULA Owners In Talks To Sell SpaceX Rival To Sierra Space

Link to article:

[Nemesis]

A Falcon 9 attempting its 23rd landing seems to have had a landing gear issue resulting in it exploding on landing.  Resulted in a temporary suspension of launches but the FAA has decided they can keep flying while the investigation goes on.

The new mobile launch platform required for later SLS launches which I think should have been ready now has spent its budget of ~$400 million and has had the budget upped to ~$2.6 billion. 

[Nemesis]

Starliner made it back successfully uncrewed.

[Nemesis]

Blue Origin has been practicing deploying the New Glenn landing legs and a barge has been seen that is believed to be the landing location for the New Glenn
booster (if it even flies this year - officially Sept 29th).

That launch of the Mars mission for NASA?

NASA delays ESCAPADE Mars launch on Blue Origin's giant New Glenn rocket to 2025 to avoid potential cost overruns

Not happening this year.  The maiden flight is now scheduled for November.  I fully expect it to slip into next year, if they reschedule it for Dec 31st that will be (I think) the 4th year in a row that they scheduled it for that date then failed to launch it. 

Am I cynical about any Blue Origin announcements?  You bet I am.  They got my hopes up too many times only to dash them.