Topic: Interesting stuff about SpaceX Starship (hate the name)

[knightstorm]

Now the environmental groups are demanding full environmental impact assessments that could set Space X back years.

[Nemesis]

Could.  But considering that it has already been judged by the FAA as not having caused ecological damage I think it has a moderate chance of success.  Concrete isn't really that damaging to the environment.  The debris from the ship is in the Gulf mostly stainless steel, again not really damaging more an interesting new reef for fish. 

Even a totally successful flight would likely had this challenge due to the noise.  In fact I expect that if and when they start seriously preparing to do sea launches there will be similar complaints that the noise could damage wildlife (cetaceans specifically).

[Nemesis]

Starship achieved lift off and 40 KM.  The stage separation maneuver failed.  It also appears that not all engines were functioning (whether partial or non functional not yet clear).  It is also unclear if the RUD was by the flight termination system or some form of failure.

Apparently the spin was NOT part of the stage separation maneuver. 

The RUD was by the flight termination but due to altitude (and IMO velocity) took an extra 40 seconds to breakup.  Next Starship more explosives so a bigger quicker boom if required.

I've seen a claim (without evidence) that some engines failed by concrete impacts and that the hyraulic gimballing failed causing the separation failure.  Totally unsubstantiated as of yet but at least possible.   

This seems not to be true.  They were unrelated to impacts as it seems the exhaust was enough to divert debris from the engines.

[Nemesis]

Raptor Version 3 announced.  350 bar chamber pressure.  269 tons of thrust (up 11.7% from 230%) so unless they decrease the number of Raptors overall thrust jumps to 8877 tons.  Raising the thrust to mass ration to 1.775.  So will they have this amazing ratio, reduce the # of Raptors OR make the ship taller?

A company called Vast has contracted to use Falcon 9 to launch Haven 1 a commercial Space Station.  They have plans to use rotation for simulated lunar gravity.  They also plan to use Starship to launch components to build a 100 meter long modular Station.

[Nemesis]

The Axiom 2 mission is at the ISS now.  If you have forgotten Axiom is planning to use Falcon 9 to launch several ISS modules that will eventually be able to split off and become an independent station. 

So which will be the first commercial independent station?

Axiom space?  Falcon launched.

Vast with Haven 1? Falcon launched.
 
OR

Orbital Reef backed by a team with Blue Origin and requiring New Glenn?


Lots of progress at Boca Chica repairing and building new pad protections for Stage 0.  Plans are to use one of the sub orbital pads for static fires on SN25 and maybe SH9

[Nemesis]

SpaceX is also attempting to get permits to allow the launch of Falcon 9 up to 20 times (the extra launches all Starlink for now).

There was also a burst test tank that observers think wasn't a normal test to failure (or unexpected failure) but a test of an updated flight termination system to ensure that a future Starship self destruct will be quicker even at high altitudes and velocities. 

Vulcan now forecast to launch in July.

Starliner is now July.

New Glenn December (but I have SERIOUS doubt of it flying this year). 

Dreamchaser in December.

[Nemesis]

Subject to change of course but the 2nd launch is now being predicted as in August.

Booster 9 and Starship 25 seem to be the test models for the launch.

[Nemesis]

Starliner delayed till September.  The safety margin if a parachute fails is considered "unacceptable".  Tape used to hold wiring in place has been found to be flammable which is not allowed.  Thermal control is inadequate.

SpaceX are building a new mega bay and they are removing the low bay at Boca Chica to make room to expand the "Star Factory".

Axiom 2 have been to the ISS and returned.  Axiom 3 will launch in November.

SpaceX has had at least 34 launches already this year so they are on course to blow away last years record number of launches.

[Nemesis]

Subject to change of course but the 2nd launch is now being predicted as in August.

Booster 9 and Starship 25 seem to be the test models for the launch.

Musk has apparently said that the repairs will be complete in June, boosters tests in July and if things go as planned launch in August.  Naysayer of course are saying not till next year.

Apparently they have begun to receive liquid nitrogen and LOX at the launch tank farm.   So either this is just for testing the tanks or they are doing some really early preparation for July testing.  I'd say tank testing.

[Nemesis]

BE-4 engine causing Vulcan Centaur delays:

United Launch Alliance called off a test-firing of the company’s first flight-rated Vulcan Centaur rocket at Cape Canaveral Thursday to troubleshoot a problem with the booster’s engine ignition system.

Ground crews planned to ignite the Vulcan rocket’s two Blue Origin-built BE-4 engines on a launch pad at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station Thursday evening, but ULA officials postponed the test-firing and roll the rocket back to its hangar for repairs.

“During the countdown, the team observed a delayed response from the booster engine ignition system that needs further review prior to proceeding with the flight readiness firing,” ULA said in a statement Thursday. “We will be rolling the rocket back to the Vertical Integration Facility to gain access to the booster ignition system.”

ULA rolled the rocket on its mobile launch platform back to the Vertical Integration Facility Friday. The company has not set a new target date for the six-second test-firing of the first stage’s two BE-4 engines, a prerequisite for the inaugural launch of the Vulcan Centaur rocket designed to replace ULA’s Atlas and Delta rocket families.

“The team will continue to review data and determine when Vulcan can roll back to the pad to conduct the flight readiness firing,” ULA said.

[Nemesis]

ULA has apparently had a successful 6 second static fire test of the BE-4 engines on Vulcan. 

Boeing is being sued over a tool used on SLS to prevent the leakage that was so much trouble blocking various launch attempts. Claim is that they helped a competitor to the tool maker steal proprietary information to clone it (badly?) to the damage of the inventors.

[Nemesis]

Looks like both Vulcan Centaur and Starliner are delayed until at least September.

Vulcan delayed due to a potential weakness in the upper stage fuel tank that needs to be checked out at the factory and possibly reinforced.  If it needs reinforcement the question becomes will it launch this year and does it affect the payload capacity?

[Nemesis]

SN 25 has done a successful 6 engine static fire.

They also are changing the separation mechanism (maybe for the next launch) to involve igniting Starships engines while still connected to the booster while the booster is still running its engines.  Apparently by not having a short period of new thrust the potential is to increase payload by another 10%.

[Nemesis]

The Falcon 9 booster used for Demo Crew 2 has now flown and landed for the 16th time.  So it looks like they did get permission to fly them 20 times. 

The last Ariane 5 has now flown.  Ariane 6 is not yet ready to fly.

[Nemesis]

The Orbital Launch Mount (OLM) for Starship repairs is far enough along that they are testing some elements. 

Booster 10 is undergoing some tests (not engine).  Boosters up to 12 are under clear construction.

Lots of work on the Star Factory building.

Indications that they may have a solution for the issues with the PEZ dispenser hatch.

A 2nd Falcon 9 flew and landed for the 16th time.

A BE-4 during acceptance testing exploded.  It is being played down as a minor issue but personally I think it is potentially of great significance considering how few have (to my knowledge) reached this stage.  They are talking of making about 50 engines a year.  Is this 1 week per engine or are they working on them in parallel and wasting more weeks if one fails?

[Nemesis]

Super Heavy Booster #9 is on the orbital launch mount and undergoing pressure testing.  So much for the OLM not being ready this year.

BN #9 doesn't have the hot staging hardware installed.  Will it be added or will hot staging happen with a later booster.

Musk has stated that with Raptor 3 they should have 200 tons to LEO with full reusability.  So how much in expendable mode?  325 tons?  Great capacity for building a bigger better station.

[TAnimaL]

not to be a cycnic, but Musk's companies have exaggerated their claims extensively, from Boring to Starlink to Tesla (see the news reported by Reuters on that last week).  I'm not saying Starship won't work or deliver tonnage to LEO; it's just hard to take anything Musk says seriously anymore.

[Nemesis]

SpaceX is more run by Gwynne Shotwell than by Musk.  It has also changed the face of the whole space industry.  So maybe Musk exagerates things for SpaceX (time lines definitely will be longer than his claims) but Shotwell does seem to keep him relatively close to reality. 

BN 9 just had a static fire 4 engines did not ignite so it was 29 engines with the deluge plate.  So far no information on any damage to the OLM.  Also no info on the level of thrust, I'd guess minimum (which might affect the ignition).  So it is hypothetically possible for an August launch but more likely Sept. to Nov. (IMO).  Musk claiming a 50% chance of achieving orbit.

Now since the failures to ignite happened during a static fire it was not destroyed and hopefully they can diagnose the issue(s).  I also haven't seen anything saying which engines.  Were they all in the outer 20 or in the inner 13 with their differing ignition systems or were they spread between both?  Was the ignition failure connected to the minimal amount of methane aboard?

The source I use for launches has switched from saying "August" to "August 30th", doesn't mean it will happen then, I'm sure this is just a place holder. 

The same source shows multiple Vulcan launches in December and Starliner in September.  I have my doubts that they will do more than one at most of the Vulcan launches in December as they will want time to evaluate it.  ULA IS up for sale and they need Vulcan to show value for the future.  Blue Origin could buy them to give them orbital launch capability.

Starliner had so many issues that it is hard to believe given how slow Boeing is to deal with things that they will launch that soon.  Then again Boeing has wanted to launch with unresolved issues before, NASA however does NOT like risking actual astronauts so I doubt it will launch so soon.  I wouldn't be totally shocked if Boeing cancelled the whole thing as the longer it takes to fly the greater their losses mount and the less chance they will recover the investment.  Maybe they can sell it to Blue Origin to give them manned ability on New Glenn?  They could also pair it with Vulcan if they were to buy ULA. 

Of course Blue Origin once again has a December launch for New Glenn.  Not the first time for a inaugural December launch plan for New Glenn, I think this is the 3rd December in a row "planned".  Given that ULA is supposed to get priority on the engines for Vulcan it seems unlikely that they will be able to spare 7 for New Glenn.  They take weeks to manufacture and they don't have SpaceX level of production lines for this.  They have apparently now announced construction of a payload integration building but how long to actually build it?  It has to be big enough for the full stack New Glenn and of course the ability to transport the fully loaded New Glenn to and from the launch pad.  I haven't heard anything about them actually ordering let alone receiving their (SpaceX clone) landing barge, so no reuse is likely too soon unless they can land on land. 

I don't have a lot of faith in Blue Origin.  Too little actual performance for too many years and too little transparency. 

[Nemesis]

Starliner is testing new parachute connections, there will be drop tests.  The tape issue has some of the tape being replaced and other tape that can't be removed without damage being covered with a layer of a non flammable tape.  Next flight won't be before March 2024 and is not actually scheduled yet as they will have to see where it can fit in with all the other ISS missions. No word on whether it will definitely be manned or not. 

The first Kuiper satellites are now provisionally sometime in September as the rocket for the first planned launch (Vulcan I believe) isn't ready to fly and may not fly this year though it does seem to be scheduled for December.  Why they bought launches only on 3 not yet flown boosters I don't know but it wasn't bright and all 3 are delayed (Ariane 6 and New Glenn are the other 2).  This launch is on an Atlas (few Atlas flights left due to no more Russian engines). 

Vulcan have multiple December launches planned.  I DON'T believe that they will launch a 2nd within less than a month and probably longer as there will be a lot of flight data to check before a 2nd launch.  Vulcan delays are causing issues for multiple companies. 

Russia is launching a lander to the moon but due to the fact that this lander was built decades ago and never used they only give it a 50/50 chance of success.  Totally obsolete technology won't accomplish much compared to what a new design would but they are rather busy and cash strapped with their "conquest" of Ukraine taking a little longer than planned.

[Nemesis]

2nd full static fire of BN9.  2 engines cut out after 2 or 3 seconds 31 engines ran the full time.