Pestalence,
Couple things real quick. First, regarding legislation, California is way ahead of the supreme court of the state. Twice now the state legislature has passed a bill granting same-sex marriage as part of the statutes of the state. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger vetoed it, both times referencing this court case and the potential resolution by the courts as being 'preferable'. (On a side note, he's already stated 'it's done', that he will support and enforce the court decision and that he opposes the November ballot issue).
The biggest danger we face is a November ballot proposition currently being reviewed by the Secretary of State office. It will define marriage as between one man and one woman in the state constitution (something Proposition 22 didn't do - putting it in the state constitution). Now, before the supreme court ruling, polling put the proposition behind 42 oppose to 41 support (in California, 90% of the time a proposition begins with more oppose than support, it fails). Unscientific polling by media outlets since the ruling are coming up with surprisingly consistent numbers. (given that both sides are freeping these polls).
The most common results are 42-43 % support for gay marriage, 12-17% support for 'civil unions' only, and 41% oppose gay marriage period. With the ballot initiative coming up in November, it's going to be a fight, but 95% of elected state democratic representatives have voted for gay marriage bills in the last three years. The Governor has publicly opposed the anti-gay marriage ballot initiative, and the Democratic Party has put support for gay marriage into its party platform for 2008, which means the party itself will be spending a few hundred thousand opposing the ballot intiative. If we can keep our current margins, and get 60% of those that support civil unions to vote "NO" on the ballot iniative, we will win.
Also in our favor is that voting "YES" on the iniative will take something away from people that they have already, and makes our argument stronger to oppose the initiative.