Topic: ISS could be surpassed before its even completed....

[NJAntman]

Won't this be a harsh slap in the face to NASA and the big Gov't folks...

http://www.spacetransportnews.com/

Charles Lurio says in his latest newsletter that he spoke with Chris Reed of Bigelow Aerospace about the negotiations with ULA for flights to their orbital facilities. He was told that,
Whatever the initial agreement on the Atlas 5, they are very much open to using - and want to encourage the availability of - other, privately developed launchers (e.g. they have a Falcon 9 reservation) both during the five years starting in 2011 and beyond
Seems reasonable to get an agreement now for a system that is already flying (at least the rocket is; there is still no word on where the crew/cargo module(s) will come from) to insure that transport, particularly for crews, is ready in 2011 while allowing for lower cost transport later.

Chris also told Charles that in the 2011-2016 period they are planning for a complete system that consists "not only of the Sundancer and the propulsion bus/node module, but also of two full-sized BA-330 modules".
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An acceleration of the Atlas V assembly line is not a trivial thing and it isn't going to happen unless Lockheed has a good sized down payment in hand and/or has high confidence in the commitment of Bigelow to see the project through. If this deal comes about, and it sounds like it is going to happen, it is of tremendous significance. We are actually going to have a private space station with regular commercial flights going to it. I think it may take some time for the reality of this to sink in and fully comprehend. If you had described such a scenario a couple of years ago to your typical D.C. aerospace guru, he or she would have rolled his or her eyes and said such a thing could not happen for many, many decades. We are, after all, talking about a station with a total volume of somewhere over 840 cubic meters when a Sundancer and two BA-330 modules are combined. This is comparable to the 935m3 of the completed ISS (2010 version), which has taken several nations many years and many tens of billions of dollars to build.

The opportunities provided by the Bigelow station(s) are enormous. The relatively low cost means that more such stations could be built relatively rapidly. The BA-330 module looks to become the Conestoga Wagon/Log Cabin/[Fill in your favorite frontier building block icon] for space. Besides using it for orbital habitats, you could attach fuel tanks and a propulsion system to it and make it into a deep space transportation system. Furthermore, the Bigelow company is already looking at how to use them as shelters on the surface of the Moon. And don't forget that the high flight rate to the stations will bring down the cost of access to space for everyone. (I don't want to discuss the huge implications of all this for NASA and the military.)

As with the Genesis spacecraft successes, this project may initially slip under the radar of most of the general press and public.The NewSpace and general space advocacy groups, though, should start organizing conference sessions or whole conferences on how to take advantage of such facilities for commercial and scientific applications. I'd also like to see discussion of how they could become the kernels of permanent space settlements.

If only I had some cash to risk... the payoff on this could be huge. Their inflatable modules would be used  in orbit and in transit and on the surface of the Moon and/or Mars.

As for implications, NASA gets a reality slap in the face and /or kick in the pants. The military?

[Vipre]

Good news. NASA is too weighed down in red tape to push the limits. The likes of Project Mercury could never be done today by NASA, the world needs someone willing to step up and take risks.

[Nemesis]

Unfortunately politics rather than either engineering or science dictated too much of the ISS.