Topic: Goldman Sachs says: Fear the Penguin.

[Just plain old Punisher]

I bet if we give everyone out there a choice of what OS is installed on their new PC/Laptop (Linux, windows, even MAC OS on intel hardware) they'll choose the OS they're familiar with and the OS they can do the most stuff with. That's windows.

I'm sorry but the thundering herd hasn't even heard of Linux for the most part.

Punisher a significant part of the Windows user base has no clue what Windows is.  I've come across way to many who if you ask them what operating system they have will mention the program they use most.

With all the mainstream press that Linux has been getting for the last few years "the herd" has at least heard of it even if they have no clue what it is yet.

Things change.  15 years ago a report like this was unthinkable.  10 years ago it was a fantasy.  5 years ago it was a matter of time.  Now its time and has happened.  Lets see what progress the next 5 years bring.

Things change. No one is assuming that windows will continue on forever. I only noted that currently, that isn't the case...and to be perfectly honest OS 10 has much more of a chance in becomming a major threat to windows than Linux. Mac OS has more applications, games, and it's helluva lot easier to use.

But let me be perfectly honest, if you continue to bet on the ignorance of the vast herd (Say it fast =) then you'll continue to be disappointed...because Linux isn't an OS for the vast herd.

[Nemesis]

Here is what I am betting on and mostly it if following the same path to the home user as DOS did.

1/ Servers - it is already there in a big way and is growing note the article that started this discussion

2/ Work desktop - a beginning has been made and I expect it to continue to grow
2a/ more commercial Linux programs - note the word more

3/ Workers wanting the same "computer" at home as at work because it is what they know.
3a/ As noted before the lowest skilled users often don't have a clue what an operating system is or even that they use windows. 

4/ Commercial programs for the home users - games etc.

Step 1 wasn't used by DOS because they effectively didn't exist back then.

Microsoft seeks ever more control over your computer and as they do they gradually make enemies of those who were their most devoted followers.   Those followers being companies where "no one was ever fired for buying Microsoft".  That has begun to change.  It began seriously a few years ago when Microsoft changed their corporate licensing and a significant number of companies refused it even when offered "deals" by Microsoft.  I expect the next generation of the license to be even worse with more rebels.