Topic: Goldman Sachs says: Fear the Penguin.

[Nemesis]

Link to PDF

Groklaw article on the PDF linked to above.

Linux-on-Intel appears likely to emerge as the dominant platform in corporate data centers. This paradigm shift should have significant implications for a broad range of enterprise IT vendors. Our handbook highlights key themes and offers an initial framework for investing in Linux’s emergence.

I haven't read the whole PDF or article yet but it does look good for Linux so far.

[Electric Eye]

Sucks to be bill Gates, eh? 

[Nemesis]

Sucks to be bill Gates, eh? 

That will depend on whether the forecasting is accurate and whether Gates fights it to the end (losing most of his wealth) or acts in a rational manner.  The jury is still out on that. 

Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose.
- William Gates III

You see, antiquated ideas of kindness and generosity are simply bugs that must be programmed out of our world. And these cold, unfeeling machines will show us the way.
- William Gates III

There are people who don't like capitalism, and people who don't like PCs. But there's no-one who likes the PC who doesn't like Microsoft.
- William Gates III

What we're really after is simply that people acquire a legal license for Windows for each computer they own before they move on to Linux or Sun Solaris or BSD or OS/2 or whatever.
- William Gates III

Since when has the world of computer software design been about what people want? This is a simple question of evolution. The day is quickly coming when every knee will bow down to a silicon fist, and you will all beg your binary gods for mercy.
- William Gates III

Let's face it, the average computer user has the brain of a Spider Monkey.
- William Gates III

Intellectual property has the shelf life of a banana.
- William Gates III

[FCM_SFHQ_XC]

It probably will still take a while for Linux to fully catch on, as people know the name of Windows so well that people wont want to change over to it. Especially with everything(Games to offic tools) always have Microsoft Windows listed on the back of System Requirements and not Linux. Guess only time will tell though

[Nemesis]

I think that Microsofts recent actions show fear.

1/ Active campaigning to stop Open Document Format from being adopted by U.S. state governments.

2/ Trying to get the Office 2007 formats made into an ISO standard and actively trying to influence voting.

3/ Patent FUD.  If Linux distritbutions really violate 235 of Microsofts patents why don't they send "cease and desist orders" or sue?  Why won't they reveal which patents?  To me it looks like fear of Linux and fear that their patent portofolio is bulging with bogus patents.

Why is this stepping up just after the "successful" release of Windows Vista?  Could it be that Vista is really not as popular as they claim?

[FCM_SFHQ_XC]

Oh definetly I think that Windows Vista numbers are at least partially being inflated. I know of only a small handful of people that have switched to Vista(3 or 4 at best), with everyone remaining on XP. Microsoft does seem to be in a bind with the threat of newer companies emerging to challenge them. Its probably that fear for the reason they arranged for DirectX 10 on Vista only, in trying to be sure to stay ahead of the game as these new products come out that challenge Microsoft.

[Nemesis]

Offline I don't know anyone using Vista.  Here there are a few and there are complaints from them and declarations of staying with XP from others.  None of that is good for Microsofts position.

I set a poll here at the end of January.  There were only 31 votes but only 6 planned to go vista, 2 as upgrades and 4 just assuming it will be on their next system. 

Question:     
Will you choose to get Windows Vista?

Yes I plan to buy a Vista upgrade for my current system.          - 2 (6.5%)
When it comes with my new machine no problem                    - 4 (12.9%)
Perhaps someday                                                              - 9 (29%)
Not unless they remove the onerous license terms and features  - 9 (29%)
No - I'm moving to a different OS                                         - 7 (22.6%)

Total Votes: 31

When have the numbers ever been so low?

[Just plain old Punisher]

Here's the thing. Vista comes with all new retail machines, unless you format the drive and install XP (Or dual boot the sucker).

It's market share will continue to grow as applications and games are written to take advantage of its features.

[Nemesis]

Here's the thing. Vista comes with all new retail machines

Which is where they ran into antitrust troubles. 

Dell is finally selling Linux machines with support for less than the Windows equivalent and is even beginning to sell "naked" machines for less than with Windows.  Finally one company has broken ranks. Hopefully the other top retail brands will do the same.

What we're really after is simply that people acquire a legal license for Windows for each computer they own before they move on to Linux or Sun Solaris or BSD or OS/2 or whatever.
- William Gates III

That quote is Gates acknowledging his illegal antitrust activity.

unless you format the drive and install XP

Which does happen.  I have seen a lot online of people doing exactly that as they refused to put up with all the DRM in Vista.  As XP was a step to far for myself Vista is that step for many more.

[Just plain old Punisher]

Dell is finally selling Linux machines with support for less than the Windows equivalent and is even beginning to sell "naked" machines for less than with Windows.  Finally one company has broken ranks. Hopefully the other top retail brands will do the same.

Linux isn't a operating system for the average consumer. No ifs ands or butts. Sorry, it just isn't.

People don't want linux, because if they did it would have a larger market share. The vast majority of retail computer buyers aren't interested in a machine without an operating system, sort of like a car without an engine.

More retail brands may offer the option for this sort of configuration, but I don't see it being popular.

I can install Vista in 15 min flat. No problems.

It takes well over 45 for most XP installations...and the vista kernal takes advantage of multiple processors. XP Offers no real multithreading support.

Look, all the crap that was said about XP when it was first released is being said about Vista.
If you want to be able to run new games, pretty soon you're gonna have to have Vista. Sorry, thems the breaks. Until another software giant dominates the operating system market, that's how its going to be.

[Nemesis]

Most people don't want Windows - they want a computer for certain purposes.  Windows is just what they get automatically unless they know enough to try and get something else.  For many who want to do Word Processing, E-Mail and browsing the Web they could use any system at all.   

If you need a program that is only on one OS then you need that OS.  If what you need is not locked onto one OS then you can use any of them.  For now at least if your primarily a gamer you need Windows because that is what games are written for.

There is no "magic" that makes Windows "superiour" it is only that people use it at work and want the same at home because its what they know.

People don't want linux, because if they did it would have a larger market share.

If it had not been so difficult and artificially expensive due to Microsofts illegal activities it would have a higher market share.  If Linux were not making inroads and endangering Windows Microsoft would not be spending the fortunes on fighting it that they do.  Microsoft knows that Linux is ready for many purposes and will be adopted for them and each step erodes Microsofts iron grip on the consumer. 

Look, all the crap that was said about XP when it was first released is being said about Vista.

Far worse is being said about Vista than was said of XP and by more people, including many who were ardent Microsoft fans.

[Just plain old Punisher]

If you need a program that is only on one OS then you need that OS.  If what you need is not locked onto one OS then you can use any of them.  For now at least if your primarily a gamer you need Windows because that is what games are written for.

So, then what you're saying is that most people want windows?

I believe that's what I said. They want to play games, do word processing, all that jazz. Most programs out there are indeed written for windows. So, they want windows in order to to the things they want to do.

Not my fault that more games aren't written for Linux.

There is no "magic" that makes Windows "superiour" it is only that people use it at work and want the same at home because its what they know.

I didn't say that windows was better, in many ways it's worse than Mac OS or Linux...but the world is full of POPULAR inferior products. A lot more people own a swatch than own a rolex...but hey when you really get down to brass tacks, both of them suckers do the same gosh darn thing: They tell time.

I only said what people want. They want windows...becuase if they didn't want windows than windows would have a lot less of a market share.

If it had not been so difficult and artificially expensive due to Microsofts illegal activities it would have a higher market share.  If Linux were not making inroads and endangering Windows Microsoft would not be spending the fortunes on fighting it that they do.  Microsoft knows that Linux is ready for many purposes and will be adopted for them and each step erodes Microsofts iron grip on the consumer. 

But until linux have a much bigger market share, it won't be popular, and if it isn't popular there won't be more games written for it, and if there aren't more games/Apps written for it then it won't be popular and it won't have a bigger market share.

But then again, we already know why Linux isn't mainstream. I only stated what was obvious: People by and large don't want Linux on their computers...because if they did they would install it, wouldn't they?

Far worse is being said about Vista than was said of XP and by more people, including many who were ardent Microsoft fans.

Not really, I heard all the same stuff from Windows ME users --- Alot of games won't work on XP, there aren't as many drivers out for hardware, it requires more memory and better hardware...same stuff.

[Nemesis]

If it had not been so difficult and artificially expensive due to Microsofts illegal activities it would have a higher market share.  If Linux were not making inroads and endangering Windows Microsoft would not be spending the fortunes on fighting it that they do.  Microsoft knows that Linux is ready for many purposes and will be adopted for them and each step erodes Microsofts iron grip on the consumer. 

But until linux have a much bigger market share, it won't be popular, and if it isn't popular there won't be more games written for it, and if there aren't more games/Apps written for it then it won't be popular and it won't have a bigger market share.

But then again, we already know why Linux isn't mainstream. I only stated what was obvious: People by and large don't want Linux on their computers...because if they did they would install it, wouldn't they?

You missed or ignored the whole section on Microsofts illegal activities that have helped block Linux from the mainstream.  Why is it that if people don't want Linux Dell not only recently started selling Linux (and HP is rumoured to be planning to) to home users and has already begun to broaden the range of machines they sell it on?  The big manufacturers have been blocked from selling Linux at competitive prices my Microsoft (proven in court) and Microsoft has been ordered to stop in more than one nation.  That is finally beginning to bear the fruit of choice.  Slowly.

You also ignore that fact that as long as you stay away from games and specific programs rather than categories of programs Linux has competitive offerings in most categories, there are exceptions (games being the biggest).  Games are a weakness but not everyone wants games.  There is a substantial market for those who want/need a computer but for whom games are not an issue.   More and more people just want an affordable computer for Word Processing, E-Mail and Web Browsing all of which Linux handles with ease.   

Average people have been blocked from trying Linux by being forced to buy Windows preinstalled.  So long as that is the case Microsofts illegal abusive monopoly continues to hold them prisoner.  Dell is one big example of the prison bars beginning to be removed.  The prison bars are being removed because people told Dell they want Linux and then when Dell offered it they began to buy in big enough numbers that Dell is choosing to expand the options they offer.  (Note:  After using Dells at work I'm not a Dell fan)

[GE-Raven]

There is no use in arguing about it.  The "linux is better, your just ignorant" crowd will never really understand why Microsoft is King.  Of course it is due to underhanded skullduggery! 

Bought my mother in law a new laptop, came with Vista.  I have to admit once I started getting used to the differences I loved some of the features (Thumbnailed task bar, gadgets for weather and CPU/mem or even a stock ticker)  To be honest, I will probably move my machine to vista when I can get a good deal on it through work. 

You can scream about unfair business practices and inferiority all you like, but if you ask the average joe on the street they will still say they like MS products.

GE-Raven

[Just plain old Punisher]

You missed or ignored the whole section on Microsofts illegal activities that have helped block Linux from the mainstream.

I ignored nothing. It doesn't matter why linux isn't more popular, I only stated what is.

Your average computer user isn't even aware Linux exists...and whos fault is that? Blame microsoft, blame the linux distributers, blame the game companies, blame anyone and everyone under the sun.

It really doesn't matter.

Lunix has a smaller market share than apple, and your average computer user is perfectly aware of apple products.

[Nemesis]

You can scream about unfair business practices and inferiority all you like, but if you ask the average joe on the street they will still say they like MS products.

GE-Raven

It is the U.S., EU, Sourth Korean, Japanese and many other courts that have not only "screamed" about Microsofts illegal and unethical actiivities and gone further to convicting Microsoft and ordering them to change their behaviour, which they have resisted.  (Partial list of Microsoft litigation)

Are you saying that all of these convictions are wrong or that it is okay with you that Microsoft has repeatedly been convicted of illegal activities?  If so what is your justification?  How is it that all these convictions have occurred or why is it alright for Microsoft to break the law?

I don't see much in the way of people saying they like Microsoft products, mostly I see people coming to me with problems with Microsoft products and recently complaining about Vista.  An increasing number are either planning to stay with XP indefinitely or have started looking at Linux.

There is no use in arguing about it.  The "linux is better, your just ignorant" crowd will never really understand why Microsoft is King.  Of course it is due to underhanded skullduggery!

Just to make things clear when Microsoft is in the right or claims are made of "bad behavior" without evidence I do come to Microsofts defense.   So I'm not exactly knee jerk attacking Microsoft without regard for the facts.  I don't have any financial stake in the Windows vs Linux competition.  My job is not in danger whichever OS they use.  I'm against Microsofts illegal and unethical behaviour, if they clean up their act I cease to oppose them.  If they behave well I support them.  Isn't that what I should do?

As stated the courts have repeatedly ruled against Microsoft for illegal activities and they have paid billions in fines and more will be coming.  Unfortunately they only make the minimum changes in their behaviour to satisfy the courts (integrating IE for example when ordered not to bundle it).

Perhaps you can explain these Poll results on whether people here will choose to get Vista. 

Question:      Will you choose to get Windows Vista?

Yes I plan to buy a Vista upgrade for my current system.                - 2 (6.3%)
When it comes with my new machine no problem                          - 4 (12.5%)
Perhaps someday                                                                    - 10 (31.3%)
Not unless they remove the onerous license terms and features        - 9 (28.1%)
No - I'm moving to a different OS                                              - 7 (21.9%)

Total Votes: 32

Its not a large sample but I think that it is revealing what the knowledgeable people here think of Windows Vista.

[Nemesis]

You missed or ignored the whole section on Microsofts illegal activities that have helped block Linux from the mainstream.

I ignored nothing. It doesn't matter why linux isn't more popular, I only stated what is.

I very much disagree.  Illegal and unethical behaviour always matters.  The greater the effect the more it matters.  Microsofts illegal and unethical behaviour affects much of the world directly or indirectly so it matters a great deal.

[Just plain old Punisher]

You missed or ignored the whole section on Microsofts illegal activities that have helped block Linux from the mainstream.

I ignored nothing. It doesn't matter why linux isn't more popular, I only stated what is.

I very much disagree.  Illegal and unethical behaviour always matters.  The greater the effect the more it matters.  Microsofts illegal and unethical behaviour affects much of the world directly or indirectly so it matters a great deal.

Not for the purposes of this discussion.

I bet if we give everyone out there a choice of what OS is installed on their new PC/Laptop (Linux, windows, even MAC OS on intel hardware) they'll choose the OS they're familiar with and the OS they can do the most stuff with. That's windows.

I'm sorry but the thundering herd hasn't even heard of Linux for the most part.

[Nemesis]

I bet if we give everyone out there a choice of what OS is installed on their new PC/Laptop (Linux, windows, even MAC OS on intel hardware) they'll choose the OS they're familiar with and the OS they can do the most stuff with. That's windows.

I'm sorry but the thundering herd hasn't even heard of Linux for the most part.

Punisher a significant part of the Windows user base has no clue what Windows is.  I've come across way to many who if you ask them what operating system they have will mention the program they use most.

With all the mainstream press that Linux has been getting for the last few years "the herd" has at least heard of it even if they have no clue what it is yet.

Things change.  15 years ago a report like this was unthinkable.  10 years ago it was a fantasy.  5 years ago it was a matter of time.  Now its time and has happened.  Lets see what progress the next 5 years bring.

[Lloyd007]

Noone seems to care about Windows Vista because it does absolutely nothing that XP doesn't already do and its M$'s dream copyprotected thing. You can't do things on Vista that you could on XP and to be truthful it really doesn't look any better... Heck and one of the selling points for the 'Ultimate' version hasn't yet materialized and M$ has offered an 'apology'

http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/32757/118/

I might get it when SP2 comes around but for now Vista reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Malibu Stacy gets a new hat. Also they should drop Home Basic since its so crippled it's not even as functional as XP Home for more money.

[Just plain old Punisher]

I bet if we give everyone out there a choice of what OS is installed on their new PC/Laptop (Linux, windows, even MAC OS on intel hardware) they'll choose the OS they're familiar with and the OS they can do the most stuff with. That's windows.

I'm sorry but the thundering herd hasn't even heard of Linux for the most part.

Punisher a significant part of the Windows user base has no clue what Windows is.  I've come across way to many who if you ask them what operating system they have will mention the program they use most.

With all the mainstream press that Linux has been getting for the last few years "the herd" has at least heard of it even if they have no clue what it is yet.

Things change.  15 years ago a report like this was unthinkable.  10 years ago it was a fantasy.  5 years ago it was a matter of time.  Now its time and has happened.  Lets see what progress the next 5 years bring.

Things change. No one is assuming that windows will continue on forever. I only noted that currently, that isn't the case...and to be perfectly honest OS 10 has much more of a chance in becomming a major threat to windows than Linux. Mac OS has more applications, games, and it's helluva lot easier to use.

But let me be perfectly honest, if you continue to bet on the ignorance of the vast herd (Say it fast =) then you'll continue to be disappointed...because Linux isn't an OS for the vast herd.

[Nemesis]

Here is what I am betting on and mostly it if following the same path to the home user as DOS did.

1/ Servers - it is already there in a big way and is growing note the article that started this discussion

2/ Work desktop - a beginning has been made and I expect it to continue to grow
2a/ more commercial Linux programs - note the word more

3/ Workers wanting the same "computer" at home as at work because it is what they know.
3a/ As noted before the lowest skilled users often don't have a clue what an operating system is or even that they use windows. 

4/ Commercial programs for the home users - games etc.

Step 1 wasn't used by DOS because they effectively didn't exist back then.

Microsoft seeks ever more control over your computer and as they do they gradually make enemies of those who were their most devoted followers.   Those followers being companies where "no one was ever fired for buying Microsoft".  That has begun to change.  It began seriously a few years ago when Microsoft changed their corporate licensing and a significant number of companies refused it even when offered "deals" by Microsoft.  I expect the next generation of the license to be even worse with more rebels.