Topic: What is the 2006 NFL Draft order?

[IndyShark]

I know the season isn't over yet, but the majority of teams played their last game this season over the weekend.

I know Houston has the first pick, and New Orleans probably has number two, but who's next?  The NY Jets, Tennessee, Oakland, Green Bay and San Francisco all have 4-12 records.

I assume Houston will take Bush and New Orleans will take Lienhart or trade down.  The Jets and Raiders need a good quarterback so they can get one if they see one they like.


Any draft predictions?

[IndyShark]

Ok, I just saw my answer on NFL.com. Any predictions on who each team will draft?

Texans have No. 1 pick; Raiders win flip for sixthAssociated Press


NEW YORK -- The Oakland Raiders won a coin flip over their cross-bay rivals in San Francisco for the sixth pick in April's draft, leaving the 49ers, in contention most of the season for No. 1, with the seventh choice.

The complete order for the April 29-30 draft was announced Monday, with Houston at No. 1, presumably with the rights to Reggie Bush, the Southern California running back who is expected to declare his eligibility after Wednesday's Rose Bowl. The Texans (2-14) officially fired coach Dom Capers on Monday as New Orleans (3-13), which will have the second pick, did with Jim Haslett.

After the Saints come a group of 4-12 teams: Tennessee, the New York Jets and Green Bay, followed by Oakland and San Francisco.

After seven, the rest of the order among non-playoff teams is Buffalo, Detroit, Arizona, St. Louis, Cleveland, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Miami, Minnesota, Dallas, San Diego, and Kansas City.

The order among the playoff teams is subject to change, depending on how teams do in the postseason, although no team can fall below other teams with the same regular-season record unless it advances to the Super Bowl. The winner of that game would have the 32nd and last pick, the loser would pick 31st.

Thus New England and Washington (both 10-6) are Nos. 21 and 22. If the Patriots advance and the Redskins don't, Washington would move up one spot, but New England could not fall below 22nd.

The order among the 11-5 teams starts with Carolina at No. 23, followed by Tampa Bay, Chicago, Cincinnati, the New York Giants and Pittsburgh.

Jacksonville, the only 12-4 team, is 29th, followed by Seattle and Denver (13-3) and Indianapolis (14-2).

The draft order is determined by weakness of schedule in the case of ties in the standings, and head-to-head games have no bearing.
 

[EmeraldEdge]

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Denver will pick up a running back in the mid to late rounds, and he'll get more attention than he would if he had been drafted by any other team at in that round (I know it's a stretch, but you never know ).

I disagree that the Raiders need a quarterback.  I think they are doing just fine with the ones they have.

[IndyShark]

The Raiders have a quaterback? 

[Darth Sidious]

I predict at least 3 trades of 1st round picks.

[Lieutenant_Q]

Agreed, Houston has no need for Reggie Bush, more of a need for an O-line.  Look for them to trade their #1 pick for several lower round picks or a solid Veteran O-lineman and a lower pick.

Honestly, I'll be surprised if Bush does indeed go pro this year, unless he has absolutely no faith in Lienhart's replacement.

New Orleans, They'll pick up Lienhart most likely.  Green Bay will trade theirs, unless they see a reciever that they just can't afford to pass up.

[Capt_Bearslayer_XC]

http://football.about.com/cs/nfldraft/a/bl_mockdraft.htm

Some 'expert' opinions.... I think....

I like this kid... Tom Zbikowski

IIRC, last night they said he has 4.25 speed in the 40!!  He saved ND from being completely blown out of the game and seemed to be nearly everywhere to make stops.

He's just a junior, but after his big time playing last night, I think he would be a 1st or 2nd rounder.

My most favorable impression came on Ohio State's last touchdown.  He was near the middle of the field and 15 yards behind the OSU running back, but when the endzone was reached, Zblikowski was only 5 yards behind and closing rapidly....

Of course, AJ Hawk will be a 1st rounder, he hits AND wraps AND drives thru people on the tackle.

Also, I think more than a few of his team mates will be joining him in the NFL.

[The Bar-Abbas Anomaly]

Honestly, I'll be surprised if Bush does indeed go pro this year, unless he has absolutely no faith in Lienhart's replacement.

Are you KIDDIN' me?!?  Can you give me ONE good reason why this kid would risk injury playing one more year for free in college instead of coming out to be the #1 draft pick in the NFL?

Can he improve his draft position by playing another year in college?  He's pretty much guaranteed the number one spot next spring.... It's not like he can do much better than that!

[Lieutenant_Q]

Why risk an injury (which is far more likely in pro football than it is at the collegiate level) that can end your career, with nothing to fall back on?  Sometimes these kids think they can win it all in the Pros, and don't need the training that the collegiate level provides.  Remember Maurice Clarett?  Honestly, the smartest thing for any NCAA player to do is play the full four years allotted to them.  They don't hit nearly as hard in NCAA than they do in the NFL.  Plus, if their NFL career, for whatever reason (injury, skill, stamina) doesn't pan out, what do these kids have to fall back on?  Flipping burgers at a McDonald's, unless they've got an education to go with it.

[EmeraldEdge]

Um, he's going to get money no matter what if he goes pro, right?  It's not like he'd get injured and end up homeless somewhere.  He can always go back and finish that one year if he does get injured.  What's his major, btw?  Is it something even useful?  Would he be guaranteed a high paying job if he graduated?  Would he end up having to job hunt?  Really, the pros of going pro outweigh the cons at this point I think.  I'm no fan of kids going pro early, but if you've got the chance then I think you pretty much have to take it.  I just hope we don't end up with a bunch of eighteen year olds in the NFL down the road.

[Lieutenant_Q]

That is the reason I am SO glad Maurice Clarrett got shot down, once by a judge and once by the Broncos.

You know, you probably are right, he has nothing to lose by going pro.  I had just thought that since Lienhart stayed around and helped him get his heisman, he'd show a little bit of the same sense and stick around one more year.  I just hope that he is ready for it, I'd hate to see another kid that thought he go could go pro early get crushed.

[EmeraldEdge]

And that's the real kicker.  Is he REALLY ready?  But then again there are plenty of first rounders who get drafted every year (after having done their four years) who may not even be in the league or end up riding the bench before those picked up in later rounds are done playing. 

[The Bar-Abbas Anomaly]

Why risk an injury (which is far more likely in pro football than it is at the collegiate level) that can end your career, with nothing to fall back on? 

If he suffers a career-ending injury in the pros his entire contract is insured so he will still receive somewhere around $60,000,000 (ball-park guess).  If he stays in and suffers only a mild injury in college, it could cost him millions next year at draft time; if it's only a season ending injury, it WILL cost him millions, and if he can't play football again he gets nothing.  Even if he enters the pros and just isn't ready and washes out, he'll still walk away with his $12,000,000 signing bonus.  That's what he has to fall back on, and he just can't risk another year in college.

Sometimes these kids think they can win it all in the Pros, and don't need the training that the collegiate level provides.  Remember Maurice Clarett?  Honestly, the smartest thing for any NCAA player to do is play the full four years allotted to them.  They don't hit nearly as hard in NCAA than they do in the NFL.  Plus, if their NFL career, for whatever reason (injury, skill, stamina) doesn't pan out, what do these kids have to fall back on?  Flipping burgers at a McDonald's, unless they've got an education to go with it.

I'm all for players staying in college and getting their education, but for a football star like Bush one more year in college can only HURT him financially and cannot help him. 

[Elvis]

Bush is going to go pro. He will be the first pick, he is nuts not to go in this draft.

The real question is: What is Vince Young going to do, Lienhart may be sorry he waited because alot of people have Young rated higher right now.

[Father Ted]

Bush is going to go pro. He will be the first pick, he is nuts not to go in this draft.

The real question is: What is Vince Young going to do, Lienhart may be sorry he waited because alot of people have Young rated higher right now.

If a RB like Bush is a cinch for the top 5, I'd say make the jump. QB is a little more dicey proposition. Michael Vick came out his junior year, and is still more of a runner than a passer. And Heath Shuler is the posterchild for junior QB's who came out before they were ready. All that said, I think Vince Young will stay for his senior year to pick up his Heisman and get a little more seasoning as a passer, but if he comes out, it's going to be hard for the Saints to pass on him with the number 2 pick.

[S'Raek]

I actually agree with an ESPN analyst, don't remember who it was (Mel Kipper?).  Anyway, if the Texans resign David Carr then they will not take a QB and will probably take Reggie Bush.  IF they don't resign Carr and are in the market for a QB then they'll take either Young (my choice) or Leinhart. 

[Javora]

So if the Texans pick a QB then who does Bush fall to, Saints, San Francisco, Detroit??   

I also look for Green Bay to pick up Young or Leinhart if either are open when their pick comes around.  I think Green Bay season record puts them in the hunt.

[IndyShark]

Here is the order

1 2-14 Houston .535
2 3-13 New Orleans  .523
3 4-12 Tennessee .512

4 4-12 NY Jets  .527
5 4-12 Green Bay  .531
6 4-12 San Francisco @  .539
7 4-12 Oakland @  .539
8 5-11 Buffalo .500
9 5-11 Detroit .504
10 5-11 Arizona .508
11 6-10 St. Louis  .484
12 6-10 Cleveland .508
13 6-10 Baltimore .523
14 6-10 Philadelphia .531
15 8-8 Atlanta .492
16 9-7 Miami .457
17 9-7 Minnesota .484
18 9-7 Dallas .523
19 9-7 San Diego  .559
20 10-6 Kansas City  .504
21 10-6 New England* .508
22 10-6 Denver (from WAS)* .539
23 11-5 Tampa Bay* .449
24 11-5 Carolina* .449
25 11-5 Chicago* .457
26 11-5 Cincinnati* .477
27 11-5 Pittsburgh* .492
28 11-5 New York Giants* .492
29 12-4 Jacksonville* .465
30 13-3 Denver* .500
31 13-3 Seattle* .430
32 14-2 Indianapolis* .457

[Father Ted]

I actually agree with an ESPN analyst, don't remember who it was (Mel Kipper?).  Anyway, if the Texans resign David Carr then they will not take a QB and will probably take Reggie Bush.  IF they don't resign Carr and are in the market for a QB then they'll take either Young (my choice) or Leinhart. 

If Houston doesn't resign Carr, and VY is available, they HAVE to take him. You can throw Leinart out the window... As a Saints fan, I can tell you that Matt Leinart won't be welcome as the next Messiah either, which is why I think they will trade down. But if Vince is available, I can almost guarantee that New Orleans will grab him about 5 seconds after the Texans take Reggie Bush, if it comes to that.

[IndyShark]

I understand Young will announce he will go pro today.

Here are my predictions;

1. Houston - Busch
2. New Orleans - Lienhart
3. Tennessee - Young